REWILDING FUTURE TREND FORECASTING
In March 2021 I first wrote about Rewilding Future Trend Forecasting.
My mission is to challenge what future forecasting means, especially surrounding the hype we face today. What is more urgent is to redefine our approach to future trend forecasting all together.
In February I spoke about "Growing a new era of trends":
We recently hosted our very first Future Vision workshop at the Trend Atelier on Rewilding. It was dynamic, engaging both our collective and independent thinking.
Since that day I've been thinking a lot about the amount of letting go needed to create a workshop format where an entire community thinks through what a trend means together.
One member even joked we had rewilded the trend board!
So what does Rewilding have to do with this?
"Rewilding is a conservation method to give control back to Nature [...] an action that unfolds through time, agency being passed over from humans to nature" as explained here.
The clue is letting go of dominance.
There's so much talk about the future of this, the future of that, including the future of forecasting (our community theme for April).
I've been talking about it with students, clients, audiences and I still can't fully wrap my head around it.. I even just created a lecture for this for an upcoming Future Learn course.
The jig is up! Forecasting has cannibalized itself with commodification, homogenisation and hype. The time is now for an upgrade.
Wresting with these ramblings of intuition, knowing and confusion, I asked myself: could there be an anchor in Rewilding?
How could we transfer the principle of giving control back to nature into future forecasting methods?
For me personally, it means stepping away from commodification and hype. And embracing uncertainty as a strategy.
The future shouldn't be considered the holy grail for an extremely anxious society.
The future is not a hype. We must let go of hype and control.
The Future is a different level of consciousness and a method to equip good decisions for future generations.
What if the very best thing we could do as forecasters, as brands, as creatives today is to rewild our ways of thinking?
And what is our natural wild state in the first place? Here are some ideas that come to mind:
Trends embedded in conscious design and action because nature is regenerative by default
Foresight that is a more communal and ongoing process, interconnected
Trends that are not wasteful because there is no waste in nature
Trend insights that are not about a set prediction or motivated by a need for control
There are already amazing ways the debate is playing out, through projects such as Narratopias, the growing practice of Speculative Design, a recent convo on Clubhouse hosted by Future Resources and other forecasters, or projects such as Futuring Peace.
Brick by brick, I am also updating our mastercourse Forecast Like a Futurist and recently added a lecture by speculative Designer Tina Gorjanc. Speculative Futures is one way we could rewild our futures thinking.
The thing is, it's a messy process to question the very nature of what we do. There are many methodologies that are fascinating on how to predict future trends. But what if growing a new era of trends was about questioning our whole love affair with future trends in the first place?
If Mother Nature had its way with Forecasting trends, what would it say?
It might think it's a disease. It might wipe it out. It might bring a harsh winter to make way for healthier seedlings.
Or it might value it as a beautiful tree and keep it around to feed the squirrels and ... the world.
I’d like to think the answer is in nature and its quantum intelligence.
I also ask myself: what is causing society’s excessive need to control the future?
Ego? Money? The need to survive and dominate?
Is it the need for escapism? The lack of belief in the present?
Is it because one must have someone else tell them what to do? Is it hype that is driving us?
Or is it because we simply want a better world?
Rewilding ourselves would mean accepting we can't control the future. But with letting go, I believe we can find our way back home and thrive again. That is what Rewilding has done for many parts of the planet. The science is there to prove it.
If rewilding futures thinking and forecasting can help us find our way again I’m all in. The only thing we can control is how we serve:
our values, and beliefs
people and our planet.
If you’d like to read Part 2 on Rewilding Forecasting which I wrote in 2023 click here.
| By Geraldine Wharry