Systematising Hindsight to make the future better

 

It’s the first summer since 2007, when I took 3 months between jobs to volunteer in Tanzania, that I have taken extended time off. I’ve been thinking about and doing a lot of hindsight lately.

For a few different reasons. With a client, we are putting together a hindsight report of the trends we’ve covered for almost 8 years now. A type of ‘where are they now’ report. Concurrently my agent and I are discussing narrowing down the key topics I speak about, so I have been reviewing to facilitate a selection. Something hard as a futurist focused on fashion and macro trends, covering a spectrum from the Future Human, Regenerative Economics to Barbie core.

It got me thinking about hindsight and asking myself why I don't have a better system in place.

The few times we did hindsight work at WGSN (at least whilst I worked there) I loved it, coming from a fashion design background where at the beginning of every collection we reviewed sales numbers to shape the next collection’s assortment.

Reviewing our past work is something we don’t often have time to do as independent foresight professionals relying on a steady stream of client work. I do see it around from time to time, but it’s more to point out something we accurately predicted, rather than a systematised practice also looking at where we went wrong.

Hindsight is important work that gives us visibility on:

  • potential blindsides and biases

  • core topics we gravitate towards

  • topics that no longer serve us

  • responses from clients and/or audiences

WIRED, as part of their 30-year anniversary, went back over their 1984 seminal feature “The Long Boom” and broke down ​all the ways they were wrong​. Refreshing.

Several months ago I started hind sighting on all of the topics I had covered through:

  • Reports

  • Public speaking

  • Lectures

  • Articles I authored

  • Press interviews and quotes

Between the future trend foresight and the future trend methodology work, it’s overwhelming. I am by far done just to be clear.

I’ve carried out hindsight work before, but I’m working on a much more systematized way of doing this. I don’t plan on going full-on investigative forensics but tables and a database are in the works.

Here's why I'm doing this:

  • April 2023 marked a decade as an independent futurist. So it's time to create a comprehensive database that is more than a good filing system in Dropbox. Frankly, I am not sure why I haven't done this before.

  • Setting up SOPs (standard operating procedures) is one of my strategic goals this year.

  • I want to be able to review efficiently what I put out in the world and hold myself accountable, whether it’s a large report or a small quote in an article.

  • There's a more data-led aspect that I want in my hindsight system. As an independent, I don't have visibility on the hit rates of pieces published on other platforms than mine. But tracking metrics on my own platforms is key.

  • I'm fascinated with the concept of flywheels. A flywheel effect creates momentum and when it comes to past work there is creative opportunity. If you’re like me and write regularly, and invest time in relationship platforms, then hindsight of your past outputs can >>> generate new writing ideas leading to >> more research and insights >>> new conversations and relationships.

In my drafted hindsight system, for each topic (see list below) I am listing events, reports, and articles over the years. I’m still working my way through but what this is providing me is:

  • An archive of my research and references

  • Embracing systematised reflection and accountability

  • Appreciation for the load of work I have done

  • Reviewing what served my practice and the people I serve

Once I have a more systematized way of structuring my database I would like to share an update, even a resource.​

Recapping the past is giving me gumption on what to focus on for the future.

In terms of topics, I have identified so far some key spokes with spokes within them! This is what I’ve been banging on about for the past decade, exploring how they impact the future of fashion and creative industries:

  • Regenerative economics, Degrowth, Capitalism, Decentralization and the Care Economy

  • New Infrastructures and systemic change, Transition Design, Biomimicry

  • Climate crisis mitigation, Pioneers and Activism

  • Material Futures, Zero Waste, Modular Fashion, The future fashion factory and supply chain, Circularity

  • Ethics, Inclusivity and Diversity, Community, Transparency

  • Youth Culture, Nostalgia, Streetwear, Subcultures

  • The Future Human, Transhumanism, Space Exploration

  • Care, Wellbeing, Mental Health and Beauty

  • Identity, Mythmaking, Future Tribes

  • Emerging tech, AI, Big Data and Mixed Realities

  • The Future of foresight, new methods, collective foresight, speculative design and future artefacts

  • The future of influence, communication and social media

For now, I leave you with a few links from 1 category that pertains to a hot topic right now: Emerging tech, AI, Big Data and Mixed Realities.

It’s a small selection to pepper your busy day and see if anything inspires you from the past. It's also a way to see how key interests, concerns and trends don't change as fast as we think.

Emerging technologies, Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and Mixed Realities

Note: The rule applied to the list above was that the foresight output had to be older than 2021. Some reports from 2013 to 2015 are relevant but were hosted as live seminars.

Geraldine

​When you're ready, there are 3 ways I can help you:

  1. ​Work with me - book a foresight advisory call

  2. ​The Trend Atelier - join my membership community for futuring creatives and foresight professionals

  3. ​Course - learn how to forecast like a futurist

 
forecasting, GW5Geraldine Wharryforesight methods, fashion forecasting, future forecasting, futurist