FUTURE FORECASTERS ARE MYTH CHASERS/ MAKERS/ SPREADERS
What are the philosophical and existential aspects of future forecasting and myths?
I believe forecasters, futurists, designers and strategists are:
myth chasers
myth makers
myth spreaders
Disclaimer: Myths are promiscuous. They infiltrate culture and are not choosy about where they inhabit.
How do myths affect society?
“The word myth,” as Northrop Frye rightly says, “is used in such a bewildering variety of contexts that anyone talking about it has to say first of all what his chosen context is.
Folklorist Liz Locke put it more bluntly in 1998:
“Such a state of semantic disarray and/or ambiguity is truly extraordinary."
The German theologian, Rudolf Bultmann said about Myths, that they expressed timeless human experience. The real purpose of myth is not to present an objective picture of the world as it is, but to express man’s understanding of himself in the world in which he lives. Myths should be interpreted not cosmologically, but anthropologically, or better still, existentially.
If this is indeed at least a part of what myth is about, then myth-making can cease only when “the world in which we live” has ceased to change, and when we have solved all of our problems and resolved all of our anxieties. This is something that future forecasting highly depends on, demonstrating our innate connection with myths. Human fascination with the future can be traced back to prehistoric times with oracles, druids, the griot to name a few examples.
Why is Trend Forecasting interconnected with myth making and cultural production?
Trend Forecasting is about detecting signs of change and understanding how they point to a plausible future. A trend forecaster needs to sense the tide changing, that moment when what is on the fringe of culture, when behaviours are shifting to reach the mainstream.
When we look at forecasting as a niche industry, it has very close links with marketing and news. And myth making is part of cultural production, and in that way, we, as forecasters, actively take part in creating modern myth.
As time accelerates, decelerates and several critical frameworks in society such as industry, consumption, equality, and planetary resources continue to be re-written, our roles as futurists, forecasters, analysts, strategists and designers are evolving. It is our responsibility to understand the power of the myths we help create. Because myths can change society for better or for worse, as we have seen in the power of propaganda.
Myth-making is the making of stories that connect people to their surrounding world through their worldview.
Trend Forecasting, in predicting the future direction of something which would affect a business's decisions or of an individual, acts as a type of algorithm affecting our conscious and subs-conscious everyday decisions. In that way, it is the new Delphi or Oracle of the XXIst century.
From the present we have access to a number of possible futures. What you know about the present (what technologies are currently in development for example) will inform what you think about the future. But a new technology can have wide-ranging ramifications.
The smartphone dramatically changed social behaviour. It also had economic and environmental ramifications due to the mining of rare-earth minerals and the switch to mobile changing the face of businesses. It has provoked debate on its ethical implications and even the political implications of Big tech as an almighty powerful “influencing machine”.
Therefore when we are chasing myths which are spreading across society, or identifying myth makers and putting them forward in our future forecasts, key aspects should be considered and thought through.
How will our analysis and forecasting change the cultural value of, for example, family, the climate, nations, corporations, and the individual?
Being part of the ‘myth making machine’ is contributing to the cogwheels of society that change culture and social dogma:
News outlets shape myths
Marketing shapes myths
Design shapes myths
Individuals shape myths
The points listed above are also part of the foresight business models, as many future forecasting agencies are structured either as editorial teams or some are part of larger marketing businesses, others are part of design companies.
It is a very powerful thing to step into speculating and giving direction about the future.
And the implications are bigger than ever, as the world changes around us, but we continue living in the old myth that the world and the planet are going to be a certain way.
Could it be that nature as we knew it will one day be retold as a myth? Could it be that equal rights for women were once seen as a myth, with the myth of the ‘subservient house wife’ dominating culture?
Individuals organised together and ‘killed’ this myth.
Myths are born and die, the same way ancient religions in Egypt and Greece have disappeared. The production of myths happens around us every day. And future forecasters are placed on a pedestal as conveyer belts of oracles.
This points to the importance of our role in spreading myths as myth chasers, myth makers and myth spreaders.
At a time when our livelihoods are at stake, if the planet is on track to exceed 1.5 degree in global temperatures, there is one myth that is being re-written:
-the collective perception that products such as clothing, phones, cars for example, mythically appear onto the shop floor, disconnected from any prior relationship with earth’s resources and human labour.
Myths matter and we can collectively and consciously create or eradicate them, rather than navigate them as passers-by, unbeknownst to the critical transformations taking place, especially when it comes to pseudo-science, disinformation and greenwashing.
Perhaps our biggest blind spot is in relegating change to the future as if it would mythically come together, as brilliantly explained in the articleFuture myopia written by Mehatel Glenhaber for Real Life Mag.
By constantly monitoring the signals of change that will impact how consumers, citizens, organisations and brands think and behave, it is our job as forecasters to help the world be selective about the myths being propagated as part of the cultural production machine.
WE must collectively unite around myths and myth makers putting nature and people first.
- Written by Geraldine Wharry & Creative research assistant Coline Rialan